COVID-19 and climate change
COVID-19 has had profound impacts locally and globally. It has prompted unprecedented policy responses around the world. And further major geopolitical, economic and social impacts seem likely. But the overall consequences of public health emergencies, even pandemics, are modest compared to the threats humanity faces from the ongoing failure to live within safe planetary boundaries.
Consider briefly how COVID-19 and climate change compare. The former poses an immediate threat; it demands mostly short-term policy responses. Climate change, by comparison, will generate significant and ongoing threats across multiple generations. Reducing these threats requires immediate, but also sustained, policy responses. Yet even if greenhouse gas emissions are cut drastically over coming decades, humanity will have no choice but to adapt to the many damaging impacts of climate change. And adaptation will need to continue for hundreds of years. This is a terrible prospect.
To be sure, COVID-19 can kill many people. But the death toll from climate change will be much greater. More importantly, it undermines the capacity to preserve life – both human and non-human.
COVID-19 can be suppressed, if not eliminated, presuming an effective vaccine can be found. But no vaccine can help humanity mitigate or adapt to climate change; nor is there a ready cure for policy inaction and government failure.
In short, COVID-19 and climate change differ in significant ways. Yet they also have notable similarities. These, in turn, have major implications for public policy.
First, both COVID-19 and climate change are powerful societal disruptors; they generate non-linear changes and non-incremental shocks; and they are risk multipliers. From a policy perspective, they serve as powerful ‘focussing events’ and ‘critical junctures’. While posing huge political risks, they also create remarkable opportunities for policy reform.
Second, they are both fundamentally science-based problems. In each case effective technical solutions and sensible policy responses depend upon reliable scientific evidence from multiple disciplines. Hence, both highlight the critical role of public investment in research, monitoring, and reporting – and, equally, the need for governmental transparency, openness and honesty. Similarly, both require technological innovations. But their implementation depends upon robust public services and infrastructure – whether educational, digital or physical.
Third, COVID-19 and climate change highlight the importance of governmental preparedness and precautionary interventions. Delays are costly – indeed tragic. Accordingly, effective responses need robust long-term thinking and sound anticipatory governance. The latter includes the capacity to identify weak signals early, assess risks, develop risk management strategies, implement pro-active measures, and build societal resilience. More specifically, both phenomenaillustrate the critical role of governments in protecting biosecurity, biosafety and public health. This, in turn, depends on robust systems and processes, but also wise leadership.
Fourth, both problems are quintessentially global. They underscore humanity’s utter interdependence – economically and socially. For effective responses international cooperation and solidarity are pivotal. Yet, equally, both problems highlight the weaknesses and limitations of our current international institutions, and the capacity of the major powers, especially China and the United States, to thwart global solutions. In so doing, they reveal the fragility and vulnerability of our digital civilization, and the poverty of global leadership.
In the quest for effective policy measures to mitigate climate change, the COVID-19 pandemic offers two hopeful lessons. First, with sufficient political will, extraordinary policy interventions are possible. Second, rapid and widespread behavioural change is achievable if there are compelling reasons, coupled with bold leadership and consistent political messaging.
Against this, troubling lessons are also apparent. The pandemic suggests that effective policy responses to climate change will not be implemented until humanity faces sufficiently compelling and urgent threats (e.g. the immediate risk of mass fatalities or large-scale property losses). Recent events also show how easily urgent issues can divert political attention from major long-term issues, narrow the mental bandwidths of decision-makers, and shift the focus of the entire global community.
Regrettably, COVID-19 offers little hope of a near-term embrace, whether locally or globally, of the policies urgently needed for an environmentally sustainable future. If this conclusion is valid, then the intergenerational implications are truly sobering.
Jonathan Boston is Professor of Public Policy at the Wellington School of Business and Government at the Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand